2020 Election: The S&P 500 Could Plunge 15% in this Scenario

With the presidential elections nearing, the only certainty is volatility.

Ahead of the 2000 election (Bush v. Gore), the volatility index (VIX) popped from 16.5 to 31.  

Ahead of the 2004 election (Bush v. Kerry), the VIX ran from 13 to 17.  Ahead of the 2008 election (Obama v. McCain), it ran from 20 to 90.  

Ahead of the 2012 election (Obama v. Romney), it ran from 13 to 28.  

And ahead of the 2016 election (Trump v. Clinton) it ran from 12 to 22.

In short, volatility is more than likely.  

Unfortunately, an unknown outcome of the next election could send the S&P 500 down 25%, or up 15% this time next year, according to Paul Tudor Jones, as noted by CNBC.

In fact, he believes the S&P 500 would plunge 25% if Sen. Elizabeth Warren is elected.  He also believes the index could rise 15% if Trump wins the next election. “Her policies would – assuming they were implemented – probably give you something like that,” he said. “As an investor, you have to have a view on the election because the outcomes are so extreme. I’ve never seen this kind of polarity in elections as we have now,” he says.

Jones isn’t the only one fearful of a Warren presidency.

Hedge fund manager Leon Cooperman has blasted Warren over her proposed wealth tax and her characterization of billionaires.  

One of her promises is to impose a 2% tax on households with a net worth of more than $50 million, and a 3% tax on households with a net worth of more than $1 billion.  

“I don’t need Elizabeth Warren telling me that I’m a deadbeat and that billionaires are deadbeats. The vilification of billionaires makes no sense to me. The world is a substantially better place because of Bill Gates, Michael Bloomberg, David Rubenstein, Bernie Marcus, Ken Langone,” Cooperman said, as also quoted by CNBC.

Of course, it’s all a wait and see at this point.