The Top Reasons the Economy May Not Be Well After All

Markets continue to melt up, even with bad news.

Job growth slowed to a crawl, as private payrolls increased by just 67,000 jobs.  That was well below expectations for 150,000.  

“The job market is losing its shine,” Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody’s Analytics, as quoted by CNBC. “Manufacturers, commodity producers, and retailers are shedding jobs. Job openings are declining, and if job growth slows any further unemployment will increase.”

“The slowdown is more significant than I would have thought, and I do think that goes to the trade war,” he added. “The trade war is doing damage to the economy and the jobs market.”

But wait, there’s more.

On top of that, CEOs are concerned about delivering earnings growth thanks to economic uncertainty, slowing global growth, that pesky trade war, and presidential election uncertainty, according to JP Morgan Chase, as noted by CNBC.  

Consumer confidence just fell for the fourth straight month in November on concerns over business conditions and employment issues, as highlighted by Reuters.  “The economy is growing, but it would take a politician to say it is in good, let alone great shape,” said Joel Naroff, chief economist at Naroff Economic Advisors.

Then, just this morning, Bloomberg reported the U.S. and China may complete a phase one agreement before the tariff deadline on December 15, according to Bloomberg.  But there’s just one problem. CNBC just denied progress.  

In fact, CNBC’s Eunice Yoon just poured cold water on that Bloomberg report, tweeting, “My sources here say China thought it had an agreement in principle on tariff rollback in early Nov but President Trump backed away from it.  So unclear how “close” two sides really are.

Hopefully, things will improve.  But this news doesn’t exude confidence.  

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