This is the Market’s Biggest Wild Card

The Trump Administration’s December 15 deadline is just days away.  

While many analysts expect for them to be delayed, that’s not a guarantee. 

“That’s the biggest thing in the room next week. I don’t think he’s going to raise them. I think they’ll find a reason,” said James Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Leuthold Group, as quoted by CNBC. Unfortunately, there’s no real clarity on what may happen.

While some say there’s progress, Trump has said, “It may be better to wait until after the 2020 presidential election to strike a trade deal.  “I have no deadline,” he said, as quoted by CNN. “In some ways I think it’s better to wait for after the election, if you want to know the truth.”  

Trump even noted that if “we don’t make a deal with China, I’ll just raise the tariffs even higher,” as noted by Markets Insider.  “They’d like to have a rollback.  I haven’t agreed to anything,” referring to China’s claim the U.S. agreed to life some tariffs.

At the same time, China may have guaranteed a tariff delay, as well.

All after removing some tariffs on U.S. agricultural goods, including soybeans and pork.  

“The goal (of this move) is to expand purchases and reassure the United States,” said a Chinese source who advises Beijing, as quoted by CNBC. “It should be interpreted as a positive signal. Despite the many political difficulties, the two sides face, economic and trade cooperation and moves to stop the escalation of the trade war are in the interest of both parties.”

China has also said it hopes to make a trade deal with the U.S. as soon as possible.  

At this point, no one has any idea what may happen.  It’s all a wait-and-see. The only certainty with the trade war is that folks are exhausted from it.